What new labor policies could impact US workers and employers next? Here’s what we know so far

A new American presidential term is just around the corner.

With this comes an imminent shake up of policies and laws that impact employers and workers alike. 

But what are they, and what do they mean for US-based employers and employers based outside the US, who employ workers in America? Here’s a snapshot analysis of the situation as it stands.

Regulations for working conditions may be loosened

Over the past year, new US regulations on overtime, non-compete agreements, and the classification of independent contractors have created significant changes for both workers and employers. While not all proposals have cleared court hurdles, agencies have pushed forward with some rules despite legal challenges.

These new rules impact workers by potentially expanding their rights to overtime pay, limiting restrictions on switching jobs, and clarifying who qualifies as an independent contractor.. Employers, on the other hand, are adjusting to these shifts, particularly as some regulations that were implemented during the last administration are now being reconsidered or replaced.

Take changes to the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act as an example. These might be reviewed under new leadership, affecting workplace rights for pregnant employees. These ongoing proposed shifts in US employment law  indicate that both workers and companies must continue to stay informed and prepare to adapt effectively.

The Trump administration’s plans on labor regulations

With the incoming Trump administration, changes to employment regulations on overtime, noncompete clauses, and independent contractor status are likely to be reconsidered. Historically, new administrations have often shifted labor policies, including potentially reversing or altering rules introduced under previous leadership. Trump’s administration may prioritize rolling back some of these recent regulations, which could ease certain compliance requirements for employers and restore more flexibility in hiring and classification practices. For workers, this could mean a possible reverse to previous standards, especially around overtime and independent contractor status, which might impact eligibility for some benefits and protections

Non-competes and defining worker types

Employers might find regulatory adjustments simplified, with fewer restrictions on non-compete clauses, and more latitude in defining worker roles. 

Safety protections and regulation at work

Changes in US workplace safety regulation are expected too, likely reflecting a more hands-off approach compared to the stricter policies seen under President Biden.

During his previous term, Trump’s administration reduced Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) inspector numbers to historic lows, relaxed some safety reporting requirements, and notably chose not to enforce specific COVID-19 protections for employees. 

This approach is likely to return, with the administration focusing less on strict regulatory oversight and more on general safety principles rather than specific mandates​.

A Trump-led OSHA may rely heavily on the General Duty Clause, which requires employers to provide a safe workplace without necessarily defining strict safety standards for different types of hazards. For global companies, particularly those in industries with higher safety risks, this could mean fewer formal requirements but a greater need for self-regulation to ensure employee safety. 

The heat safety rule is fair game for changes

Employers may have more flexibility but will need to independently review their safety measures to avoid liability issues and ensure compliance with core safety laws.

The Biden administration's efforts to introduce a heat safety rule, expected as early as 2025, could be either scaled back or scrapped entirely. This change would affect industries like construction and agriculture where heat-related safety is critical, requiring employers to proactively manage these risks without specific federal guidance​.

Global employers operating in the US should track local and state safety regulations, as some regions may continue to enforce or even expand safety measures that a federal rollback could leave unaddressed.

Overtime pay adjustments

The salary threshold for overtime eligibility is set to come into effect at the start of 2025, extending overtime coverage to millions more workers by increasing the salary cap for “white-collar” exemptions from about $44,000 to nearly $59,000.

However, this rule may face legal challenges, and if delayed in court, the Trump administration could have time to roll back or adjust these thresholds. Historically, Trump’s Department of Labor (DOL) took similar steps in 2017, blocking an Obama-era rule that aimed to expand overtime coverage broadly.

For global companies, this could mean uncertainty around payroll adjustments, particularly in the tech and service sectors, where many employees may fall under the threshold. Companies should stay updated on pending litigation to prepare for any payroll compliance adjustments necessary if the rule takes effect.

Federal minimum wage

Trump has historically opposed a substantial increase in the federal minimum wage, which has been $7.25 per hour since 2009. Although there could be a slight increase under his administration, any significant federal hike is unlikely. 

However, state and local governments in many parts of the US continue to implement their own minimum wage increases, creating a patchwork of wage requirements that employers must track.

For companies with employees in multiple states, this means adapting to multiple different local wage standards to remain compliant. Employers may need tools or systems that keep track of state-specific minimum wages to adjust payroll accurately.

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Pay data collection expectations

The Trump administration has previously opposed EEOC’s pay data collection initiatives, which require employers to report wages and hours worked to identify pay disparities. While Biden’s administration attempted to revive this rule, a Trump-led EEOC is expected to end this initiative. 

For employers, this likely means fewer reporting requirements, though states like California and Illinois are enacting their own pay equity laws, requiring separate compliance on this front.

Paid leave and state-level mandates

Federal paid leave mandates are unlikely under Trump, despite bipartisan support for middle-class benefits. However, paid leave requirements are expanding at the state and local levels, with jurisdictions passing their own regulations. Global employers operating in the US should review leave policies by region and prepare for varied compliance requirements across different states.

Expect rollbacks and limitations put on DEI in the workplace

What to glean from the previous Trump term, on DEI regulation

During the next presidential term, moves to lessen the scope of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives and how they’re regulated in the workplace are likely. During Trump’s previous term, an executive order sought to restrict some DEI training topics in the workplace, especially around race and gender. This order was later repealed by the Biden administration that followed.

But during the next presidential term, under Trump, DEI programs might face tighter oversight, with limitations on what types of diversity and inclusion content are considered acceptable under US employment laws.

The Trump-led Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) may adopt a narrower view on DEI, focusing more strictly on existing laws like Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits workplace discrimination (on the basis of race, sex, color, religion, and national origin). This could mean that some DEI initiatives, especially those that are seen as potentially exclusive or preferential (in light of the tone the new administration sets), could be scrutinized or restricted.

Global employers with US workers may have to adjust training to comply 

For global employers with US operations, this change may mean adjusting DEI programs to comply with the new guidelines. For employees, it could impact the kind of diversity and inclusion efforts they experience at work, as US government-funded initiatives may face restrictions. As these policies evolve, both employers and employees should monitor updates closely.

Visa programs like H-1B could face more stringent criteria

The use of temporary foreign workers and visa programs like H-1B are likely to be an area of focus for the Trump administration. They’re expected to impose stricter eligibility criteria for H-1B visas, increase deportations, and reduce protections for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) recipients. 

US employers, or global employers with US teams, who employ talent from elsewhere but are based in America should review hiring practices and verification processes. Be prepared for potential disruptions in workforce availability because of more rigorous immigration policies​

These anticipated policy shifts highlight the importance for global employers to stay informed and adaptable. They must prioritize compliance with multiple changing federal, state, and local labor regulations as the Trump administration’s policies evolve.

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Immigration enforcement in the workplace is predicted to intensify

Then, now and the future of immigration enforcement at work in the US

A shift back to direct actions like workplace raids is possible. Under Trump’s first term, enforcement involved "supply-side" measures, where government agents would conduct raids at workplaces to identify and detain undocumented workers.

In contrast, the Biden administration focused on "demand-side" enforcement, emphasizing whether employers were knowingly hiring undocumented workers without directly targeting workers themselves.

Global employers should prepare for more US compliance checks 

For global employers with teams based in the US, this could mean greater scrutiny around hiring practices. A key part of this shift may involve a sharp rise in I-9 audits, which are used to verify that employees have legal authorization to work in the United States.

In Trump’s previous term, these audits surged to around 12,000 annually, a significant increase over Biden’s approach. Increased audits could lead to stricter verification processes and more pressure on employers to make sure they are fully complying with US immigration laws.

Having the right advisors on US compliance is more important than ever

In the tech sector, where talent is often sourced globally, this heightened enforcement could impact how quickly companies from outside the US can onboard American talent, or those on work visas in the US.

Employers in this space will need to review and strengthen their compliance processes to help alleviate time lags, blockers, and non-compliance risks. For employees, particularly those on temporary work visas, it’s even more important to maintain up-to-date documentation to navigate potential changes in workplace immigration enforcement as smoothly as possible.

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There will be changes in leadership at major US labor agencies

New leaders are expected to be put in place at key labor agency boards, like the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). While agency board members and commissioners generally have protected terms, the US president can appoint new chairs — an action forecasters predict Trump is likely to take quickly. 

This probably means Marvin Kaplan, the only current Republican at the NLRB, and Andrea Lucas, the only Republican at the EEOC, are set to step into these chair roles.

More employer flexibility on union support, DEI, and worker classification

For global employers operating in the US, these leadership shifts will likely be driving forces for the regulatory changes mentioned earlier, as new chairs come with different priorities 

To recap, a more conservative approach here might emphasize employer flexibility in managing labor practices, and could lead to reduced enforcement in areas like union support or DEI initiatives. This could offer US-based tech and global companies more freedom in structuring their US workforces, but it would also mean fewer protections for workers in some key areas.

Less top-down discrimination and unionization protections for workers

For workers, especially those unfamiliar with US labor practices, these leadership changes might impact the support they receive from regulatory bodies on issues like workplace discrimination, unionization, and worker rights.

Employees may start to notice shifts in how labor concerns are addressed and should stay aware of these evolving policies to understand their rights and protections.

When will shifts in US labor agency positions take place?

Initially, it will take time for new leadership to be appointed and for significant policy changes to take effect. However, the Trump administration is predicted to steer the NLRB in a direction that prioritizes employer control over workplace practices, gradually rolling back many of the union-supportive policies introduced during the Biden administration.

Where does the NLRB stand on labor practices right now?

Under Biden, the NLRB implemented a series of measures aimed at strengthening union rights. Some measures include making it easier for workers to organize, reducing employer influence in union decertification efforts, and allowing union representatives to participate in safety inspections. 

These actions have made it simpler for unions to advocate for workers’ rights, including promoting causes on workplace uniforms and establishing bargaining rights without requiring a formal employee vote in certain situations.

What does the situation look like ahead if agency positions shift?

For US employers, and global employers with US operations, the predicted shifts under Trump could mean greater flexibility in managing employee relations. Companies may experience fewer requirements around union-related activities, spurred on by a relaxation of regulations that previously required employer cooperation with some union activities.

For workers, these changes may make unionization efforts more challenging, potentially reducing avenues for advocacy on workplace issues. International companies operating in the US should stay tuned in on these developments, and so should US-based workers. 

Understanding how evolving labor policies may impact both their organizational policies and workforce rights from 2025 onward, will be key here.

Tipped wage legislation and more take-home funds for workers

On the campaign trail, Trump signaled interest in supporting a law to eliminate federal taxes on tips for hospitality workers, which would allow them to take home more of their earnings without requiring employers to raise wages.

While it has bipartisan support, any change to tipping policies would take time to pass through Congress. Hospitality employers should monitor legislative developments, as this could impact pay structures, tip policies, and wage reporting requirements.

Watch this space

A lot could change over the next five years. The above series of laws and regulations could be rolled back  or forward, be ousted, be implemented, or not quite make it over the line. Either way it goes, workers and employers will both be directly impacted and the current forecast suggests this is likely to happen on multiple fronts. 

For US employers, and global employers with US workers, right now is a crucial preparation period. You’ll need the right global workforce partner and compliance experts to remain within the law, navigate what lies ahead, and to maximize any potential upsides, as well as minimize downsides.

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